Fall in POL consumption: Beware of the ides of June

Beware of the ides of June, with apologies to the Roman saying.  The disappearance of growth in POL consumption in the industrial sector in June is a sure of sign of distress that industry watchers must take cognizance of.
The following data proves the point:
Naphtha consumption declined 4.3% in June in relation to the same month last year. there has been a degrowth of 3.4% during April-June as well
FO and LSHS consumption was down 12.9% in June and 7.7 % in April-June
Petcoke, a low cost favorite among furnace owners in India, declined a massive 18.6% in June and 1.1% in April-June
LDO consumption recorded a de-growth of 5.6% and 1.1%
Was this slack in liquid fuel or feedstock production picked up by higher gas consumption? Not really
Gas consumption grew only 0.75% in June and 0.63% in April-June
The data supports the fact that core sector industrial growth slowed down to a 19-month low of 0.4%, much lower than 7% recorded in June, 2016
Is it just the adverse impact of demonetization or is it a deeper more insidious peril looming around the corner?


Transportation sector sees robust growth: Even as industrial POL consumption slows and goes negative, the transportation sector continues to thrive, albeit at a slightly slower pace. MS consumption during June, 2017 recorded a robust growth of 11.9% and 10.6% in April-June, 2017.
Diesel consumption grew 6.5% and went up cumulatively to 5.8%
Rapid vehicle growth is attributed to these consumption figures
Air travel continues to soar: June ATF consumption grew 9.2% while in April-June, the increase was 9.9%
So even as the industrial consumption tanks, the transportation segment continues to see growth.



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